Abstract:
Due to the improvement in weather observation methods, numerical weather models, data assimilation technique and computation capability, in the past 20 years, numerical weather prediction (NWP) has greatly improved both in model performance such as model accuracy and valid time with increasing model productions. The NWP has effectively boosted the development of typhoon forecast in China. In the past 5 years (2007—2011), the mean typhoon track forecast errors in the National Meteorological Center (CMA) are 114 km, 190 km and 287 km for 24 hour, 48 hour and 72 hour forecasts, respectively. Now the 24 hour track forecast error is 100 km less than that 20 years ago. The capability of 48-hour/72-hour track forecast is respectively equivalent to that of 24-hour/48-hour track forecast 20 years ago. Although there is great improvement in typhoon track forecast, the intensity forecast still has no obvious improvement. Our core technology of numerical weather models still falls behind the international advanced technology, and the forecast capability still cannot meet the needs for typhoon disaster prevention and reduction. In this article, the main approach, key technology and shortage of typhoon forecast in the last 20 years especially after 21st century both at home and abroad are reviewed. Also the prospect of typhoon forecast in the coming 5~10 years is discussed.