用低频天气图方法进行延伸期预报的探索

Exploration of the Low-Frequency Synoptic Map for Extended-Range Forecast

  • 摘要: 在应用低频天气图制作上海地区5年(2008—2012年)夏季强降水过程延伸期业务预报的基础上,进一步探索了低频天气图方法在使用过程中的技术规则、技术要点和技术方法。就低频天气图的计算和绘制、天气关键区的划分、分析低频天气系统等技术规范和预测模型的建立等应用中的问题进行了讨论。以强降水过程为例,论述了低频天气图使用方法及其依据的天气学原理。

     

    Abstract: Based on the application of the low-frequency synoptic map (LFSM) for extended-range forecast of summer strong precipitation process in Shanghai for five years (2008—2012), this paper further explores the technical rules, technical points and technical methods of LFSM. The main contents include how to calculate and draw LFSM, the technical principles for the key regions' division of LFSM, the technical rules for analysis of the low-frequency weather systems and the foundation of the prediction model. Finally, with an instance of one strong precipitation process, the usage and weather principles are discussed for reference of the related weather operational departments during the spread of LFSM.

     

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