Abstract:
The 10—30 days' Extended-Range Forecast (ERF) is a forecasting ‘gap’ between conventional weather forecast and short-range climate prediction, which has attracted great attention from the academic community world-wide and has become an important development direction of the current forecast decision-making services. In recent years, a great number of departments of studies and operational work all over China have engaged in scientific research and forecasting application of the ERF and achieved some results in forecast practice. As for the feasibility of the extended-range forecast, this paper expounds on what the ERF is, whether or not there is a possibility to deal with it, how to carry it out and how to evaluate ERF. In addition, the future prospects of ERF are also thought about deeply and discussed. Specially, the actual progress of the forecast operational practice on ERF is highlighted. Finally, for readers’ reference, a point of view is proposed that the forecasting range and accuracy should match each other in the ERF evaluation.