Abstract:
The evidence of the relationship between polar motion and runoff is reviewed. The relationship between the runoff of Yarlung Zangbo, a primitive river in Tibet, China and polar motion with data records from about 1846 to present is explored. First, the action path framework was structured based on geophysical principles. In order to make time series stationary, the initial time series of polar motion
Xcomponent,
Ycomponent and runoff were transformed into their corresponding fi rst order difference time series Δ
X, Δ
Y, and Δ
Q. The Granger causality test between Δ
X, Δ
Yand Δ
Qwas conducted on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. It is found that on a monthly scale Δ
Xinfluences Δ
Qat the lag being from the 1
stto the 21
stmonth, with the 9
thmonth being an exception. Δ
Yinfluences Δ
Qat the lag from the 1
stto the 9
thmonth and from the 17
thto the 24
thmonth. On a seasonal scale, the influence of Δ
Xon Δ
Qcan be seen in the 2
ndseason (i.e. from the 4
thto the 6
thmonth). The influence of Δ
Yon Δ
Qcan be seen on a seasonal scale from the 4
thto the 6
thseason (i.e. from the 10
thto 18
thmonth). We cannot see evident Granger causality from Δ
X, Δ
Yto Δ
Q, on annual scales. For the Granger influence of Δ
Qto Δ
X, Δ
Y, it is found that on a monthly scale the influences are prominent at the lag being from the 3
rdto the 25
thmonths for the Δ
X, for the Δ
Yit is the 1
stand the 3
rdto the 25
thmonths. On a seasonal scale these influences can be seen at the lag from the 2
ndto the 8
thseason (corresponding to the 4
thto the 24
thmonth) for Δ
Xand at the lag from the 1
stto the 8
thseason (corresponding to from the 1
stto the 24
thmonth) for Δ
Y. Again, on a annual scale no evident granger causality can be found from runoff to polar motion. The different behaviours on monthly, seasonal and annual scales suggest that using the monthly data of polar motion to obtain the monthly runoff data is more practicable than borrowing the data from polar motion for river runoff on seasonal and annual scales.