Abstract:
The precipitation anomaly distribution over China in the summer of 2013 was seen by the phenomenon of flooding in north and drought in south. More rainfall occurred in northeast China, north China, the eastern Sichuan basin and the most of the northwest China, while less rainfall occurred from the Huaihe river basin to the south of the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and it also occurred over Tibetan Plateau. Both the dynamic-statistical prediction (DSP) and dynamic statistical-diagnostic prediction (DSDP) have made the approximately correct forecast for the situation of the flood in north and drought in the Yangtze River. The predictive score (PS) is 71 and 74 respectively, while the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) is 0.09 and 0.20 respectively. The DSP results of 500hPa height anomalies field in the areas of western Pacific subtropical high, Eurasian blocking high and northeast China cold vortex are ideal, which provided the basis for diagnostic prediction of the summer drought and flood distribution. Finally, the existing problems of DSP were discussed and we pointed out the possible solutions.