Abstract:
The history of operational typhoon intensity estimation based on Dvorak technique is reviewed and the necessity of improving the operational flow of typhoon intensity estimation in China is analyzed in this paper. Then this paper gives a brief introduction to the basic method and flow of Dvorak technique (1984 Edition) based on BD enhanced infrared satellite image and recommended by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the effect of its operational tests and application in Central Meteorological Office (CMO) of China Meteorological Administration (CMA) in 2012 and 2013. Finally, the limitation of Dvorak technique and some problems in operational analysis are discussed. The results of the operational tests and application show that Dvorak technique not only improves the accuracy of operational typhoon intensity estimation and the objective technical support capabilities in CMO/CMA, but also enhances the comparability of the operational typhoon intensity estimation data given by CMO/CMA and other international operational typhoon centers. And the comparative verification resutls, based on the CMA typhoon best track data, show that the average accuracy of operational typhoon intensity estimation of CMO increased to 1.3 m/s in 2013 from 1.9 m/s in 2011, increased by nearly 32%; the verification results of the total 511 comparative samples in 2013 indicate that the current typhoon intensity index (CI) given by CMO and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) are almost consistent, and there is an overall difference of ±1.0 between their CI indices.The difference is related to the satellite data (MTSAT or FY2 series) using in Dvorak analysis and the operational analysis experience of the forecasters.