Abstract:
The Zhejiang WRF-ADAS Rapid Refresh System (ZJWARRS) is built up based on WRF model and ADAS, providing the short-time numerical weather prediction by assimilating the latest observations every three hours. The real-time forecasting performance, during the period from June to August and Typhoon Fitow (1323) are accessed. The results show: (1) ZJWARRS has shown a fairly good accuracy in forecasting the spatial-temporal variation of precipitation during the flood season. On the regional average, ZJWARRS overestimates the amounts of precipitation. Based on the verification results of 3 h accumulated precipitation, one can draw a conclusion that the shorter the forecast time length is, the higher the prediction accuracy is. Compared with Zhejiang WRF ADAS Real-time Modeling System (ZJWARMS), ZJWARRS is better on forecast capacity. (2) For Typhoon Fitow, the track prediction improves greatly with 3h updates forecasts. As a whole, the system gives a good forecast on the evolution of Typhoon Fitow. The areas and amounts of 24 h accumulated precipitation during Fitow are both under-predicted. However, the result of MODE is a further indication of the conclusion that ZJWARRS correctly shows the structure of the main rain belts during Fitow.