浙江省快速更新同化系统的建立与检验评估

Establishment and Evaluation of Zhejiang WRF-ADAS Rapid Refresh System

  • 摘要: 浙江省快速更新同化系统(Zhe-Jiang WRF-ADAS Rapid Refresh System,ZJWARRS)基于WRF模式和ADAS同化系统(中尺度预报模式ARPS的数据同化系统)建立,每3h同化吸收最新观测资料进行短临预报。选取2014年夏季和台风“菲特”期间该系统的表现为例,评估该系统在日常降水和台风暴雨预报中的应用效果。结果表明,ZJWARRS对夏季降水的时间演变和空间分布把握较好,但预报总体偏强。对3h累计降水预报结果呈逐步修正趋势,体现了快速更新同化系统预报时效越临近效果越好的优势,预报水平较原浙江省中尺度数值预报业务系统有所提高。3h滚动更新对“菲特”路径预报修正效果明显。ZJWARRS能较好预报出台风降水强度逐渐加强后又逐步减弱的演变过程,但降水强度和范围存在低估,形态检验表明降水的结构预报和实况的相似度较高。

     

    Abstract: The Zhejiang WRF-ADAS Rapid Refresh System (ZJWARRS) is built up based on WRF model and ADAS, providing the short-time numerical weather prediction by assimilating the latest observations every three hours. The real-time forecasting performance, during the period from June to August and Typhoon Fitow (1323) are accessed. The results show: (1) ZJWARRS has shown a fairly good accuracy in forecasting the spatial-temporal variation of precipitation during the flood season. On the regional average, ZJWARRS overestimates the amounts of precipitation. Based on the verification results of 3 h accumulated precipitation, one can draw a conclusion that the shorter the forecast time length is, the higher the prediction accuracy is. Compared with Zhejiang WRF ADAS Real-time Modeling System (ZJWARMS), ZJWARRS is better on forecast capacity. (2) For Typhoon Fitow, the track prediction improves greatly with 3h updates forecasts. As a whole, the system gives a good forecast on the evolution of Typhoon Fitow. The areas and amounts of 24 h accumulated precipitation during Fitow are both under-predicted. However, the result of MODE is a further indication of the conclusion that ZJWARRS correctly shows the structure of the main rain belts during Fitow.

     

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