Abstract:
This study provides a quantitative forecast method to predict the potential maximum wind gust at three coastal automatic weather stations (Yantian International Container Terminal, Mawan Port and Shekou Ferry Terminal) in Shenzhen based on the investigation of the relationship between the wind gusts observed at the stations and tropical cyclones’ (TCs’) main characteristics, i.e., TC intensity, TC distance to the station and TC’s azimuth relative to the station. The Historical data of TCs within the distance of 700 km to these AWSs, and the hourly maximum wind gusts at these stations at the same time are analyzed for 2004 to June 2014. Results show that the wind induced by TCs is intermittent. The wind induced by offshore TCs is strongly affected by the surrounding terrain condition of the stations. Generally, coastal stations face to the wind direction suffers more from wind influence than those stations back to the wind direction. The wind gust induced by TCs is bigger at Yantian international container terminal station than that at the other two coastal stations. When TCs are approaching to the coast in South China, the most dangers are in the Northeast quadrant of TCs. In this quadrant, TCs with higher intensity in severe tropical storm might incur gust gale (wind gust > 17.2m·s
-1) at Yantian international container terminal even with a distance more than 400 km to the stations. Finally, the statistical scheme was tested and it works well to forecast wind gusts induced by TCs at those stations for the period from July 2014 to September 2016. It is a valuable tool to forecast the wind gust more precisely for these port terminals, and may serve to the city’s typhoon warnings.