CMIP6模式新情景(SSP-RCP)概述及其在淮河流域的应用

New Scenarios of CMIP6 Model (SSP-RCP) and Its Application in the Huaihe River Basin

  • 摘要: 新一轮国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)将为气候变化预估领域提供更为丰富的全球气候模式数据,其共享社会经济路径(SSPs)与典型浓度路径(RCPs)的科学组合情景融入了社会经济发展的影响,将提供更可靠的气候变化可能结果。首先对选择包含7个组合情景(SSP1-1.9,SSP1-2.6,SSP4-3.4,SSP2-4.5,SSP4-6.0,SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5)的5个CMIP6全球模式进行降尺度处理,并基于此数据开展2021—2100年淮河流域年均气温、降水的时空演变分析。2021—2100年,除SSP1-1.9情景外,其余6个组合情景下,年平均气温都呈递增趋势,且上升幅度随辐射强迫的增加而增加;淮河流域年降水都在增加,降水增加区域主要位于流域中部,且流域极端洪涝事件更易发生。对比CMIP5预估结果发现,CMIP6情景下未来淮河流域气温增速更快,降水增幅更大。

     

    Abstract: Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) will provide more abundant global climate model data in the field of climate change projection, and its scientific combination scenarios of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) incorporates the impact of socioeconomic development. The new scenarios will provide more reliable possible results of climate change. The first flood in the Huaihe River Basin (HRB) has exceeded the safety guarantee water level. Therefore, research on possible changes in the future climate of the HRB is particularly important. This study downscaled 5 CMIP6 global models which included scenarios of SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP4-3.4, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, SSP3- 7.0, SSP5-8.5, and analysed the spatial and temporal changes of the annual temperature and precipitation in the HRB during 2021-2100. The areal averaged temperature shows an upward trend during 2021-2040 under SSP-RCP scenarios relative to the reference period (1995-2014). The areal averaged annual precipitation in the HRB will increase during 2021-2040. The increasing precipitation will be mainly located in the middle of the study area, and extreme floods will most likely to occur in the entire watershed. Comparing with the CMIP5 studies, it is found that under the SSP-RCP, warming will faster in the future, and the precipitation will increase obviously in the HRB.

     

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