Abstract:
Global climate change has important impacts on economic systems and their various sectors.And therefore, to study the adaptation of economic systems to climate change, it is urgent to identify the quantitative impacts of changes in meteorological conditions on economic systems.Here, based on the economic data including total output value and capital stock of five sectors as well as the meteorological data in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the impact of meteorological condition changes on the total output value was explored using a translog production function, and the sensitivity of different industries to meteorological condition changes were quantitatively revealed.The results show that the marginal output elasticities of heating degree days (every 1% increase) for construction, transportation, warehousing and postal services, industry, wholesale and retail trade, and agriculture are -0.1501%, 0.6197%, 0.9309%, 0.4473% and -0.7311% respectively, and the marginal output elasticities of cooling degree days (every 1% increase) for the five sectors are 0.0274%, -0.0208%, -0.0709%, -0.1028%, and 0.0282% respectively.Meanwhile, the marginal impacts of precipitation anomalies on the five sectors are -0.1643%, -0.1365%, -0.0005%, -0.0407%, and 0.0407% respectively.The negative impact of climate warming on economic systems has been gradually increasing, especially for industry, transportation, warehousing and postal services, and wholesale and retail trade.In the short term, the climate warming is beneficial to construction industry and agriculture.Precipitation has a negative impact on all sectors except agriculture, with the largest negative impact on construction and transport.This study has implications for exploring the impact of climate change on socio-economic development and enhancing socio-economic adaptability to climate change.