Abstract:
Using the hourly precipitation data of national basic meteorological stations and regional automatic weather stations in Changji, Xinjiang, the spatial distribution as well as monthly and daily variation characteristics of short-time heavy rainfall in Changji during the flood season from 2015 to 2019 were analyzed. Moreover, factors such as environmental field characteristics and mesoscale conditions were studied. The research results illustrate the uneven distribution of short-time heavy rainfall in Changji because of the altitude and topography factors, with higher rainfall frequency over the mountainous areas than the plains and over the east than the west; Short-time heavy rainfall≥10 mm/h and≥20 mm/h occurs most frequently and covers the widest areas in June. In terms of the daily variation of rainfall, the probability of occurrence is greatest between 14: 00 BT and 17: 00 BT, accounting for 26% of the total. The influencing weather systems of short-time heavy rainfall can be categorized into three types: the West Siberia low trough, the northwest airflow, and the Central Asian low trough, among which the Central Asian low trough accounts for the highest proportion of 60%. The corresponding mesoscale environmental elements of each type vary from each other, and the frequency and temporal distribution patterns of each influencing system are different. The analysis of the sounding curves for short-time heavy rainfall processes has been conducted, and based on CAPE, LI, static stability, vertical wind shear, and ground
Td, a preliminary warning threshold for short-time heavy rainfall nowcasting has been established. It was tested using sounding data from 2021 to 2022, and the results showed satisfactory potential forecasting effect.