2024年多源融合实况分析产品研发进展及在高影响天气和灾害过程的应用与检验

Advancements of Multi-Source Merged Real-Time Analysis Products in 2024 and Their Applications and Verifications in High-Impact Weather and Disaster Events

  • 摘要: 总结了国家气象信息中心2024年多源融合实况分析产品的研发进展,重点阐述了其对高影响天气过程的描述能力以及在防灾减灾气象服务中的应用情况。2024年,国家气象信息中心攻关四维集合变分同化、大气化学弱耦合同化等一系列实况分析关键技术,研制了“全球大气再分析产品V1.5”等48个数据产品,产品最高时空分辨率在全球尺度提升至10 km、1 h,中国区域尺度提升至1 km、5 min,局地尺度提升至100 m、5 min,为天气、气候、人工影响天气等业务提供了有力支撑;同时不断加强多源融合实况分析产品在高影响天气过程的应用能力,为高影响天气过程监测提供准确精细的数据支撑。面向防灾减灾气象服务需求,国家气象信息中心基于多源融合实况分析产品建立站点数据插补业务流程,截至2024年10月,在13个省(区、市)17次气象灾害和保障过程中,为1214个站短时缺失数据提供插补服务,为一线预报员研判天气形势提供数据支撑。

     

    Abstract: Advancements of multi-source merged real-time analysis products developed by National Meteorological Information Centre (NMIC) in 2024 are summarized, with the focus on their capabilities to describe high-impact weather processes and applications in meteorological services for disaster prevention and mitigation. The NMIC has achieved a series of key technology breakthroughs in real-time analysis, such as 4DEnVar and weakly coupled assimilation of atmospheric chemistry, and developed 48 products, including the CMA-RA V1.5. The highest spatiotemporal resolution of the products has been enhanced to 10 km and 1 h globally, 1 km and 5 min in China, and 100 m and 5 min in local areas, providing stronger support for weather, climate, and weather modification operations. The NMIC has continuously strengthened the application capabilities of multi-source merged real-time analysis products in high-impact weather processes, providing accurate and detailed data support for highimpact weather monitoring. To support the needs from meteorological services for disaster prevention and mitigation, NMIC has established operational gridded data interpolation complement process based on multi-source merged real-time analysis products. As of October 2024, this operational process has provided data interpolation services to 1214 stations with short-term missing data during 17 processes of meteorological disasters and supports in 13 provinces, providing data support to the front-line forecasters in analyzing weather situations.

     

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