基于机器学习的气温预报订正研究进展

Progress in Machine Learning-Based Temperature Forecast Correction

  • 摘要: 精准的气温预报对应对极端天气、保障公共安全、优化农业和能源管理等具有重要意义。基于机器学习的数值预报偏差订正技术显著提升了气温预报质量。为了探寻近年来机器学习方法在气温预报偏差订正方面的使用效果,系统回顾了近年基于机器学习的气温预报偏差订正研究进展,并梳理了机器学习方法,如决策树、随机森林、人工神经网络、支持向量机、聚类算法等,及深度学习算法,如深度神经网络、卷积神经网络、循环神经网络、图神经网络等的最新应用成果。结果表明:机器学习算法通过挖掘历史气象数据中的复杂模式和关联,可有效订正数值模式预报的气温偏差;集成学习方法通过融合多种机器学习模型和神经网络的优势,显著提升了预报的准确度和稳定性;新兴技术如Transformer和图神经网络展现出巨大潜力,尤其是在处理复杂时空数据和捕捉空间相关关系方面表现突出。未来,多源数据的高效融合、模型可解释性和不确定性分析的增强,以及实时学习和适应性模型的开发,可能为进一步提升气温预报的精度提供重要的技术路径。

     

    Abstract: Accurate temperature forecasting is essential for responding to extreme weather events, ensuring public safety, and optimizing agriculture and energy management. The machine learning-based numerical weather prediction error correction has significantly improved the quality of temperature forecast. To explore the application effect of machine learning in temperature bias correction in recent years, this paper systematically reviews the research progress of machine learning-based temperature forecast bias correction. It also sorts out the latest application achievements of machine learning methods, such as decision tree, random forest, artificial neural network, support vector machine, clustering algorithm, and deep learning algorithms, including deep neural network, convolutional neural network, recurrent neural network, and graph neural network. The research results indicate that machine learning algorithms can effectively correct temperature forecast biases in numerical models by uncovering complex patterns and relationships in historical meteorological data. Ensemble learning methods, which combine the strengths of various machine learning models and neural networks, significantly enhance both the accuracy and stability of forecasts. Additionally, emerging technologies such as Transformer and graph neural network have shown great promise, particularly in handling complex spatiotemporal data and capturing spatial dependencies. Looking ahead, the efficient integration of multi-source data, the improved model interpretability and uncertainty analysis as well as the development of real-time learning and adaptive models may offer critical technological solutions to the further enhancement of the temperature forecasting accuracy.

     

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