两种方法对鹤岗气温均一化及变暖趋势估计的对比分析

Comparison of Two Methods for Temperature Homogenization and Warming Trend Estimating in Hegang

  • 摘要: 鹤岗国家基本气象站于1956年开始观测,2003年由人工观测改为自动观测,2013年台站迁移,这些变化都可能对观测序列的均一性造成影响。选择鹤岗周边6个观测时间较长,数据质量较高的站点为参考,通过一阶差分法和反差分处理建立参考序列,并借助RHtestV4软件进行气温序列的均一性检验和订正。结果表明:以新站址数据为基准建立的参考序列很好地滤掉了迁站造成的数据不连续,较为准确地代表了鹤岗平均气温的变化特点;采用分位数匹配方法(QM)订正得到的序列能较好地体现该站气温变化的季节差异,订正后的鹤岗气温序列较订正前更加合理。订正是以新站址为基准的,在实践中不需要每年都订正数据,为后续数据的更新和使用提供了极大方便。

     

    Abstract: The operational observation started at Hegang National Basic Meteorological Station (hereinafter referred to as Hegang Meteorological Station) in 1956, and the observation mode was changed from manual to automatic observation in 2003. It was in 2013 that Hegang Meteorological Station was relocated from the old site. These changes may have an impact on the uniformity of the observation data. Six stations around Hegang Meteorological Station with long-term observation and high data quality were selected as references. The reference series was established through the first-order difference method and contrast division processing, and the uniformity test and correction of the temperature series were carried out with the help of RHtestV4 software. The results show that the reference series, which was established based on the data of the new station site, has well filtered out the data discontinuity caused by the relocation and accurately represents the variation characteristics of the average temperature in Hegang Meteorological Station. The series corrected by the quantile matching method (QM) reflects the seasonal differences of temperature changes at this station. The corrected temperature series of Hegang Meteorological Station is more reasonable than that before correction. The correction is based on the new station site. In practice, it is not necessary to correct the data every year, which provides great convenience for data update and application.

     

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