全球大洋尺度海洋环流预报系统的研发及应用现状

Development and Application of Global Ocean-Scale Ocean Circulation Forecast Systems

  • 摘要: 全球海洋环流预报系统是海洋研究的重要基础,可为海洋防灾减灾、航海安全和海洋气候研究等提供支撑。海洋环流预报系统主要由海洋环流模式和数据同化系统组成。基于海洋环流的研究,国际上研发了众多的海洋环流模式,其中欧洲海洋核心模式(NEMO)和美国发布的混合坐标海洋模式(HYCOM)被广泛应用,很多机构在此基础上基于最优插值和三维变分等同化方法构建了业务化海洋环流预报系统。中国科学院大气物理研究所(IAP)大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG)研发的气候系统海洋模式(LICOM)极大地提高了中国自主构建耦合模式和预报系统的能力,且结合集合最优插值同化方法实现了多种海洋资料的同化。中国的业务化海洋预报及实况业务产品研发起步较晚,与远洋导航、智慧海洋服务业务需求尚有差距,目前中国已经发布的业务化海洋预报系统(CGOFS)中的海洋模式是引进的NEMO模式。文中通过对全球海洋环流预报系统进行调研,重点了解NEMO、HYCOM和LICOM模式的研发现状和业务化应用情况。掌握中外海洋环流模式研发现状对中国建设海洋实况业务系统、提高海洋实况产品质量、实施海洋强国战略具有重要意义。

     

    Abstract: As crucial basis for marine research, global ocean circulation forecast systems can provide a full range of support for ocean disaster prevention and mitigation, navigation safety and ocean climate research. An ocean circulation forecast system mainly consists of ocean circulation model and data assimilation system. On the basis of ocean circulation research, a number of ocean circulation models have been developed. Among them, the NEMO model released by Europe and the HYCOM model released by the United States are widely used. Based on the two models, many operational ocean forecast systems have been constructed with optimal interpolation and three-dimensional variational (3Dvar) assimilation methods. The LASG/IAP Climate System Ocean Model (LICOM) developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, has greatly enhanced China's autonomy in constructing coupled models and forecast systems, and has realized the assimilation of multiple marine data in combination with the ensemble optimal interpolation method. In China, the relatively-late initialization of operational ocean forecast and real-time operational products has resulted in the unmet needs from ocean navigation and smart ocean meteorological services. Currently, the NEMO model is employed in the released Chinese Global Oceanography Forecasting System (CGOFS). Based on the investigation into the global ocean circulation forecast systems, primarily into the research and development as well as operational application of the NEMO, HYCOM, and LICOM models, this study makes it possible to further grasp the current situation of ocean circulation forecast model development both at home and abroad. This is of great significance for China to build a realtime marine operational system, improve the quality of realtime marine products, and implement the strategy of building a strong maritime country.

     

/

返回文章
返回