2011—2020年登陆或影响漳州的台风致灾危险性评估

Disaster Risk Assessment for Typhoons Landing in or Affecting Zhangzhou during 2011-2020

  • 摘要: 通过对2011—2020年登陆或影响漳州台风的分析和评估发现,台风影响漳州主要集中在7—9月,近年来台风数量有减少趋势,影响时间逐渐推迟;台风致灾因子综合危险性较大的区域位于沿海一带、主要山脉迎风坡和入海口等特殊地形处。登陆或影响漳州的台风根据移动路径主要分为3类:1)登粤型台风,影响频数最高,多是外核区降水或外围对流影响,高危险区域主要位于中南部区(县),尤其是云霄乌山和漳浦梁山附近;2)转向型台风,对漳州的风雨影响程度最轻;3)登闽浙型台风,虽然影响频数最少,但暴雨和风雨综合危险性指数最高,分布范围最广且较为分散。

     

    Abstract: The analysis and assessment of typhoons that made landfall in or affected Zhangzhou from 2011 to 2020 reveal that typhoons mainly affect Zhangzhou from July to September. In recent years, the number of typhoons has decreased, and the timing of their impact has been gradually postponed. The areas with the high comprehensive risk levels of typhoon disaster are located along the coast, on the windward slopes of major mountain ranges, and at river mouths and other special topographical locations. Typhoons affecting Zhangzhou can be mainly divided into three categories based on their tracks. Type Ⅰ typhoons make landfall in Guangdong, which have the highest frequency of impact and mostly bring precipitation from the outer core or peripheral convection. The high risk areas are mainly located in the central and southern districts or counties, especially around Wushan Mountain in Yunxiao and Liangshan Mountain in Zhangpu. Type Ⅱ track-turning typhoons have the least wind-rain impact in Zhangzhou. Type Ⅲ typhoons make landfall in Fujian and Zhejiang, which have the lowest frequency of impact, but the highest risks of heavy rain and combined wind-rain. Their distribution is the widest and most dispersed.

     

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