中国航空气象对流天气临近预报技术研究进展

Research Progress on Convective Weather Nowcasting Techniques for Aviation Meteorology in China

  • 摘要: 文中介绍了2010年以来中国航空气象对流天气临近预报技术研究进展,重点梳理了不同对流天气临近预报方法在航空气象预报业务中的应用和存在的问题,包括外推预报法、数值模式预报法以及多种方法融合。多尺度雷达回波交叉相关跟踪法(MTREC)已经在航空气象对流临近预报领域得到了很好地应用,能够相对提前、准确地预报对流天气系统的移动趋势。服务于民航气象的融合雷达数据的快速循环同化数值模式系统已经建成并在更新迭代中。深度学习、外推与数值模式融合、多源观测数据融合等技术逐渐在航空气象临近预报领域应用。

     

    Abstract: This paper reviews the research progress of convective weather nowcasting techniques for aviation meteorology in China since 2010, focusing on the application and existing problems of different convective weather nowcasting methods in aviation operational forecasting, including extrapolation forecasting, numerical model forecasting, and multi-method fusion. The multi-scale tracking radar echoes by cross-correlation (MTREC) method has been well applied in convective nowcasting, which enables relatively early and accurate prediction of the movement trends of convective weather systems. The Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) system with radar data for civil aviation has been developed and continuously updated. Techniques such as deep learning, fusion of extrapolation and numerical models, and multi-source observation data fusion are gradually being applied in weather nowcasting for aviation.

     

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