浙江短时临近集成预报系统及其初步评估

Introduction and Preliminary Evaluation of Zhejiang Integrated Nowcasting System

  • 摘要: 快速更新集成天气预报系统作为数值天气预报模式的重要补充,可以提高天气预报的时空精细化水平。文中从分析和预报方法、数据和业务流程、检验评估结果等方面介绍了浙江短时临近集成预报系统。该系统以数值预报结果为初猜场,结合精细地形数据,融合天气雷达、自动气象站等多源观测资料,首先研制高分辨率实况分析场,并在此基础上进一步利用矢量外推、动力降尺度和加权融合技术进行短时临近预报。系统可实现浙江省500 m分辨率、逐10 min滚动更新的多要素实况分析和24 h预报。2023年9—10月杭州亚运会期间的评估结果表明:实况分析结果可以很好地再现最新观测数据,更好地刻画复杂地形的影响;短时临近预报更为及时准确。相比数值预报,短时临近集成预报结果具有明显提升,尤其是在1~6 h内,6 h内气温、风速、相对湿度预报的平均均方根误差(RMSE)分别减小26%、23%和21%;降水的改进主要集中在前3 h,TS分比数值预报结果明显提高。

     

    Abstract: The rapid-refresh integrated nowcasting system, as an important supplement to the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, can improve the spatiotemporal refinement level of weather forecasts. This paper provides an overview of Zhejiang Integrated Nowcasting System from the perspectives of analysis and forecasting methods, data and operational process and evaluation results. The system starts with an NWP short-range forecast as a first guess and combines refined terrain data and multi-source observations such as weather radar and automatic weather station data to generate a high-resolution real-time analysis field. Vector extrapolation, dynamic downscaling and weighted fusion techniques are subsequently applied to produce nowcasting outputs. The system can provide multi-element real-time analysis and 24 h forecast for Zhejiang Province at a 500 m spatial resolution, with 10 min rolling updates. Evaluation results during the Hangzhou Asian Games (September-October 2023) demonstrate that the real-time analysis field accurately reproduces observations and effectively captures complex terrain effects. Nowcasting products exhibit enhanced timeliness and accuracy, with the most significant added value observed within the first 6 h. Compared to the NWP output, the root mean square errors of temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity for the first 6 h are reduced by 26%, 23% and 21%, respectively. Significant improvements in precipitation forecasts are most pronounced within the first 3 h, with the threat score (TS) obviously higher than NWP results.

     

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