Abstract:
Road icing is one of the worst phenomena in adverse meteorological conditions. In this paper, a new method of Analog Deviation is introduced to road icing prediction in Beijing region. Based on the fine resolution observation data which was observed by the 15 auto monitoring stations for road weather information, road icing samples are selected, then the factors of air temperature, road surface temperature and relative humidity are screened from all the observation elements to apply to Analog Deviation method. The speci fi c computation procedures are: (1) Analog Deviation between the icing samples from November of 2009 to March of 2010 (hereinafter called 2009 winter) and historical icing samples is computed, (2) select the minimum of Analog Deviation, (3) critical value is determined, (4) predict road icing or not, (5)effective test of prediction. The results show that the rate of true prediction is 67.6 percent in all. Therefore, the method of Analog Deviation proves to be a feasible one to predict road icing in Beijing region, and could be recommended to use in the service system for ease of road icing.