Abstract:
The extended range forecast is now a key point of meteorological service and is also a difficult point of predictable techniques. According to the characteristics of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation, some results are obtained on research appliance of extended range forecast in China. Therefore it is introduced to some research advances for extended range forecast. The main contents contain that (1) the analysis of feasibility on atmospheric low-frequency oscillation and extended range forecast, (2)the extended range forecast of the low-frequency circulation fi elds, (3) the precipitation trends forecast of extended range of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation and (4) the synoptic processes forecast of extended range of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation. Finally, the prospects in atmospheric low-frequency oscillation are expounded. In addition, the problems about low-frequency synoptic meteorology and low-frequency are also proposed. Especially, to study extended range forecast from the viewpoint of atmospheric low-frequency, a new approach using the forecasting method of low-frequency synoptic chart (LFSC) is introduced recently in this paper. The low-frequency synoptic systems (low-frequency cyclones and anti-cyclones ) on LFSC and their action characteristics can be used to determine qualitatively the con fl uence between the south and north air current (warm and cool air), and cause precipitation processes. Using LFSC method, it shows that the forecast results are good in Shanghai areas from 2008 to 2010 and its forecast validity period is 15~45 days. So the LFSC method can be applied in extended range forecast.