A Highly-Resolved Model of Meteorological Forecast of Water Logging and Water Logged Risk in Huaihe River Basin Based on GRAPES-MESO

A forecast model of waterlogging and water logged risk for Huaihe basin is established by coupling the GRAPESMESO numerical model and the hydrological model VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) with fine resolution. Firstly, the precipitation and temperature forecasts by the GRAPES-MESO are used to force the VIC in order to calculate the runoff depth and three layers of soil moisture with 15 km×15 km grids. Then the risk level of water logging and water logged are obtained based on the results of VIC according to the national forecast and early warning publishing standards of water logging and water logged. Finally, the forecasts resulted from the highly-resolved model were compared with those from the raw large scale model in 50 km×50 km grids by taking 2 heavy rainfall events in July, 2008 in Huaihe River Basin as test cases. The results show that the highly-resolved model is effective to solve the problem of omission of forecast and performs better than the original large scale model with lower resolution when the forecast periods are on continuous rainy days.