A Review and Outlook of Verification and Evaluation of Precipitation Forecast at Convection-Permitting Resolution

Evaluation and verification of numerical model provides an effective method to understand the model deviation, improve the numerical model as well as improve the quality of forecast service products. The traditional operational verification of precipitation is mainly based on the evaluation of accumulated rainfall amount, and less attention has been paid to the evolution of rainfall systems. With the increasing of the model resolution and the requirement of fine precipitation prediction, the verification and evaluation based on amount only will not satisfy the demand of fine-scale quantitative precipitation forecast service. On the basis of reviewing the existing methods of precipitation verification and evaluation, this paper mainly introduces a new evaluation method based on hourly scale characteristics such as frequency and intensity of precipitation and the peak time of diurnal variation. Examples are given to show the application of such evaluation methods for in-depth understanding of the subdaily precipitation forecast deviation. The preliminary results show that the results can enrich the numerical model evaluation and provide more useful information to improve the objective prediction method. With the widely application of convective permitting models in operational precipitation forecast, it is necessary to further develop and improve the detailed evaluation methods for different regions through classification, and further develop the verification and evaluation metrics for the application of rapid updating system and convective permitting ensemble forecasting model, so as to improve the performance of kilometer scale numerical model and post-possess the model products to provide scientific and technological support.