Test and Evaluation of Dynamic Interpretation Technology for Tropical Cyclone Wind Field
-
Graphical Abstract
-
Abstract
China is one of the countries that are most seriously affected by tropical cyclones, especially landfall tropical cyclones. The high winds caused by tropical cyclones are the main meteorological disaster-causing factors and the main object of operational forecasting, and the current numerical forecast is an important objective reference product for tropical cyclone wind field forecasting. When the path and intensity of the tropical cyclones forecasted by the numerical model deviate significantly from the subjective forecast, the wind field forecasted by the numerical model needs to be corrected in time. However, due to the lack of reasonable and effective correction means for the operational numerical wind field forecast products, the usability of the products has been reduced significantly. In this paper, the “dynamic interpretation technology for tropical cyclone wind field” is adopted in the establishment of an objective forecast system for the refined forecast of TC wind, and the objective and subjective typhoon wind field tests are carried out, as well as the typhoon wind field tests for 2020. The test and evaluation show that the refined objective typhoon forecast system based on the “dynamic interpretation technology for tropical cyclone wind field” has exhibited good interpretation of the tropical cyclone wind field numerical forecast products. The system has also improved the forecasters’ understanding and application level of the relevant numerical forecast products and therefore has enhanced the refinement degree of wind field forecast. It can provide important reference and basis for meteorological forecast and decisionmaking services.
-
-