Progress and Prospects of Key Technologies and Product Development for Severe Convective Real-Time Analysis

Strengthening the scientific understanding of severe convective weather such as short-term intense precipitation, thunderstorm gale, hail, and tornadoes is crucial for precision weather forecasting services such as for disaster prevention and mitigation. How to analyze the current status and development of severe convective weather based on past and present observations is an important and challenging issue. The current status of mainstream operational systems in the United States, Europe, Asia, Canada, and Australia was investigated. In particular, the current status of the operational systems, including the Warning Decision Support System-Integrated Information (WDSS-II) in the United States, the Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) in Austria, and the Severe Weather Automatic Nowcasting System (SWAN) in China, is compared from multiple perspectives. According to the integration of severe convective real-time analysis products and forecasting practice, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) testbed and spring forecast tests were also investigated because of their great inspirations for the application of severe convective real-time analysis products. At the same time, the technical trends of domestic and international research on the severe convective real-time analysis were studied.By comparing and analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of severe convective forecast and early warning techniques such as rapid update assimilation numerical models, conceptual model forecasting techniques as well as identification, tracking and extrapolation forecasting techniques, and by reviewing recent artificial intelligence solutions of major domestic and international agencies, reflections and suggestions for the severe convective real-time analysis system of China Meteorological Administration were put forward and in the meantime, lay a foundation for subsequent severe convective multi-source fusion real-time analysis with its own characteristics.